Weather, Climate and Other Information

How do climate and weather information affect risk and behavior? The conceptual models underlying dissemination of climate and weather information emphasize direct relationships between improvements in specific information – such as the probability of rainfall tomorrow or the projected frequency of given “100 year” flood events – and the ability to plan or avoid risks.  If you know it is going to rain tomorrow, you bring an umbrella.  If the frequency and magnitude of flood events are known, structures can be designed to accommodate flows and land uses can be planned to minimize risk. As a result, the conceptual models underlying the production and dissemination of climate and weather information emphasize improvements in specific prediction capabilities (the ability to specifically identify probable temperature ranges, precipitation events, etc.) and the transmission of this information to a mix of general and specialized user groups.  The public is seen as needing information on weather, early warning concerning extreme events and possibly longer-term climate conditions to use in day-to-day decision-making.  Specialized user groups, from engineers and architects to agricultural extension agents, are viewed as requiring precision information as the core input to calculating everything from the design parameters for dams to building or zoning regulations. The basic information model, as a result involves:

1.       Climate and weather scientists as the “producers” of specific forecasts along with meteorology and other, primarily governmental, organizations as hosts for data bases;

2.     A wide variety of organizations (from government departments to the public media) for tailoring information to the needs of the general public and specific user groups and transmitting it to them; and

3.     Specialists and the public as information “consumers.”

The information model above is facing fundamental challenges from climate change. As basic parameters within the climate system change, they will generate complex and in some cases, unpredictable dynamics. This is an inherent feature of change in complex dynamic systems. The climate and weather communities have struggled for decades with the challenges inherent in bounding and communicating probabilities. This challenge will only increase as the reliability of using historical data as a basis for predicting the future declines with climate change and, as a result, the reliability of probabilistic forecasts decreases.

Our approach to the role climate information can play involves significant changes from the above conventional information service generation-transmission-consumption model. First, it recognizes that climate and weather science will not, in many situations, be able to generate reliable probabilistic forecasts for specific parameters. While in some cases (short-term weather forecasts, sea-level rise, regional changes in average precipitation, shifts in the balance of precipitation from snow to rain, etc…) predictive capacities may improve, in other cases (precipitation intensities, storm frequencies, the seasonal characteristics of major regional climate features such as the Indian Monsoon, etc…), the ability to make probabilistic forecasts is likely to decline. Instead of probabilities, climate science may be able to produce information on trends in basic parameters, changes in variability and uncertainty. Second, our approach recognizes increasing diversity in the number and types of information producers, transmission mechanisms and consumers. Rather than a top-down system, more and more information is being produced locally and blended with insights from regional to global sources that is then transmitted through diverse webs of formal and informal communication mechanisms to meet the needs demanded by different users. Third, the approach recognizes that many groups of information consumers will need to change the way they use and interpret climate and weather information to reflect emerging realities regarding the types of data that can scientifically be produced. Specialized information user groups, such as engineers, insurance companies, and land-use planners, rely on probabilistic forecasts as the central element underlying product design parameters. Where such forecasts cannot be produced, new approaches to design are required that focus on the inherent resilience of structures, institutions and financial systems under changing conditions rather than tailoring designs to meet known probabilities.

Given the above, our approach to the role of climate and weather information seeks to identify:

1. Where predictive and probabilistic approaches to the specification of future climate parameters are likely to remain reliable and where greater attention will need to be paid to trends, uncertainty and declines in predictive capacities;
2. Points of entry for improving the ability of diverse communities of information generators and transmitters to successfully blend information from local to global sources in ways that meet the needs of equally diverse user groups; and
3. Points of entry for “improving the fit” between the types of information that can be generated and design approaches within specialist user communities, particularly those concerned with risk, disaster and water management.

Now to put this in the specific South Asia regional context:

Vulnerability to climatic change and variability is quite high throughout South Asia. Communities throughout the region are regularly impacted by floods, droughts, and extreme storm events. These natural hazards are likely to be exacerbated by climate change. However, information about climate change and variability is seldom incorporated into planning, development programs, or post-disaster recovery efforts. As climate becomes more variable and sea levels begin to rise, South Asia will be better able to adapt and cope if climate information is incorporated into planning and disaster risk reduction efforts. The flow of climate and weather information, the contexts and forms in which it is presented, the timeliness of dissemination, who is issuing the information, and who is receiving it determines the usefulness of the information in adapting and coping to climate variability and change.

There is still much uncertainty in predicting how various regions throughout South Asia will be affected by climate change and the extent of hydro-climatological changes. Short-term weather prediction with a lead-time of 6-10 days is quite accurate. Seasonal predictions of the monsoon rainfall are becoming more difficult as the relationships between the monsoon and other climate phenomenon, such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation, change. The rate and extent of snowmelt in the Himalayas or alterations to the Austral-Asian monsoon are not readily predicted by large-scale general circulation models (GCMs). The skill of these models in capturing global climate trends has improved greatly, lending confidence to their predictions about global change under various greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Yet, efforts to downscale the model predictions of anticipated precipitation changes on the district level in India, for example, are difficult. Predictions about the rate and extent of sea level rise are still fraught with uncertainty. A mean sea level rise of half a meter over a short time frame can have a more devastating impact for coastal communities than a rise of a couple of meters over several hundred years.

Despite the uncertainties surrounding regionally specific climate change and variability, climate change is a real phenomenon with profound implications for the communities, governments, and economies of South Asia. The IPCC (2007: 5) states, “Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising average sea level.” The mass balance of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets is enough to raise mean sea levels by up to 70 meters, if they were to melt completely (Church and Gregory 2001). Furthermore, we are committed to a warming of 0.2ºC per decade for the next couple of decades  if we continue our current rate of greenhouse gas emissions, or 0.1ºC per decade if we were somehow able to hold emissions steady at the year 2000 levels (IPCC 2007). Thus, incorporating information about climate change and variability will be important to successful adaptation strategies for South Asia.

Information on climate variability and change is not readily available or widely used at the community level, by non-governmental organizations, up to the national and regional levels in South Asia. Typical weather and climate information dissemination systems generally follow linear, top-down approaches, in which the  information is released without considering who the end users are, how they will be using the information, and the time frames and contexts within which they need the information to be communicated. Furthermore, climate and weather information is often released without conveying the probabilistic nature of the forecasts, for example the range of likely variability in a seasonal forecast of the Indian monsoon. Forecasts are issued with the goal of advising, rather than considering the impact of the forecasts on behaviors and decision-making. For example, a weather bureau generates forecasts and typically issues a single scenario forecast to the irrigation district offices. Individual farmers are not considered when issuing the forecasts, or the knowledge and resources available to the farmer for adapting a range of scenarios. For instance, if a farmer was informed, in the terminology he or she understood, that a severe reduction in monsoon rainfall was likely for a particular season, he or she might opt to plant different crop varieties or forgo planting and seasonally migrate. For projects considering longer timescales, disaster relief organizations and non-governmental organizations could build resiliency and reduce risk by incorporating climate variability information into their efforts. Barriers also exist for disseminating information in an early warning system for extreme weather events and other natural hazards.

Having and using climate information has the potential to greatly enhance disaster risk reduction efforts, livelihood security and diversification, and reconstruction and rehabilitation activities. We are speaking with various actors about their informational needs, such as the content form of climate and weather information and the timeliness of its release. We are also investigating the current systems of climate and weather information dissemination throughout India and Nepal, in order to understand where communication is effective and what barriers need to be overcome. Based upon the insights gained through shared learning dialogues and semi-structured interviews, we will test the use and dissemination of available climate information in specific contexts where local communities, governmental entities, non-governmental organizations and other actors believe it could play a key role in reducing vulnerability. Such contexts include:

1. Decision-making processes within relief organizations related to post-drought/flood/tsunami relief and reconstruction activities in case study regions including some affected by the recent tsunami;
2. Disaster risk reduction and planning activities undertaken by local communities, non-governmental and government organizations in vulnerable regions;
3. Basic educational and capacity building environments (schools, etc…), particularly those serving the needs of vulnerable communities such as fishermen.

Our approach is to enhance resilience to natural disasters, including those exacerbated by climate change, by encouraging local communities, governmental actors, and non-governmental organizations to incorporate climate and weather information into reconstruction and rehabilitation efforts and livelihood diversification strategies. We are seeking to build flexibility into the climate and weather information dissemination structure so that the information flow is dynamic and capable of responding to user needs.

References

Church, J.A. and J.M. Gregory (2001), chap. 11, pp. 641-693 in Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, J.T. Houghton et al., Eds., Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007. Climate Change 2007: The physical science basis. Summary for Policymakers. IPCC Secretariat, Geneva.